North American Power and Nodal Reference Case

Long-term electricity price projections (zones, hubs, nodes)
The North American Power and Nodal Reference Case is considered to be the gold standard for bankable long-term energy outlooks. For 25 years, the reference case report has supported project financing, sell-side, and buy-side transactions.

Whether developing new solar, wind, energy storage/battery energy storage system (BESS), or fossil-fired projects, underwriting financing, entering new markets, or making major capital decisions, you need comprehensive, unbiased, bankable price forecasts and energy market intelligence. 

The North American Power Reference Case provides long-term zonal and hub price forecasts and scenario analysis, while the Nodal Power Reference Case adds granular hourly LMPs for every physical bus. Together, they enable you to make precise valuations, structure investment deals, mitigate risks, validate revenue cases, and align stakeholders on optimal commercial decisions. 

Challenges with investing in North American energy markets 
Are your energy infrastructure investment projects facing delays or unforeseen risks because you struggle with:
 

• Finding unbiased, regularly updated, and well-supported electricity price (including capacity, REC, and ancillary services) forecasts to accurately project expected revenues?
• Staying current on energy markets, key drivers, and evolving policies across North America—including power, renewables, natural gas, coal, and environmental markets?
• Securing financing for energy projects when financial institutions require widely accepted, bankable price forecasts?
• Developing resilient investment strategies based on a clear understanding of long-term revenue profiles and risk exposure?
• Evaluating locational price differences at different project sites and LMP basis risk?
• Obtaining analytic support for due diligence: buy-side or sell-side transactions or financing activities?

We enable you to overcome these challenges and make capital decisions with confidence in your North American power markets.

Maximize profitability and secure project financing

• Develop business cases with bankable forecasts to project accurate revenues even at a nodal or bus level.
• Understand market depth, competitiveness, curtailment, and volatility.
• Avoid unexpected low returns and costly forecast errors.
• Avoid millions of dollars in at-risk revenue from Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) settlements at market hubs by understanding the risks built into PPA terms.

Reduce time and increase efficiency

• Utilize off-the-shelf forecasts and detailed market reports: no additional in-house resources needed.
• Reduce redundant manual analysis and work.
• Easily stay up to date with webinars.

Clarity and transparency

• Get access to local advisors for further explanation and expertise—supporting customers with energy market intelligence since 2000.
• Rely on transparent methodology and assumptions backed by decades of energy modeling expertise.
• Receive detailed narrative market reports and scenarios.

Ready to maximize ROI and understand your energy markets?
Connect with our energy market advisors to learn more about bankable forecasts and market intelligence reports.

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North American Power Reference Case 

Forecast details (25 years, up to 40 years)

• 25-year forecasts for long-term hourly, monthly, and annual power prices, monthly and annual capture prices (solar, wind), annual capacity prices, annual REC prices (Tier 1, Class 1, Solar), and hourly ancillary services prices  
• Levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH)
• Spring and fall releases, including narrative reports and underlying assumptions for ERCOT, WECC, Midwest, Northeast, Southeast, Hawaii, and Mexico
• Monthly short-term power and gas price updates (United States and Canada)
• Multiple scenarios and sensitivities (United States and Canada) such as:
  • Base or reference case
  • One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA)
  • CO₂ tax
  • High or low decarbonization
  • High natural gas price
  • Low natural gas price
• Two sensitivities (Mexico, Hawaii) in addition to a base case: 
  • Low gas/fuel price 
  • High gas/fuel price

Report details

• Detailed market reports for ERCOT, WECC, Midwest, Northeast, Southeast, Hawaii, and Mexico
• Fuel markets (natural gas, coal, oil, hydrogen)
• Renewable energy markets
• Environmental policies
• Assumptions, modeling approach, and related methodology

Webinars and advisors

• Pre-release and post-release webinars for fall and spring 
• Access to our local advisors

Nodal Reference Case
 

• LMPs are available for all physical buses in the United States (the lower 48 states) and Canada
• Fundamentally derived LMP projections from detailed transmission constraint modeling (not based on extrapolation of historical LMP basis)
• Same fundamental assumptions and market drivers as the North American Power Reference Case - consistent analysis from zonal to nodal
• LMPs to support BESS siting, manage LMP basis risk, and avoid sinking development time and costs into sites with material basis/congestion risk